The Best Is Saved For Last: The Box Office Races To the Finish Line

Many things have changed in the Motion Picture Industry over the years but one constant is the fact that the week between Christmas and New Years remains the single best moviegoing week of the year. The best is saved for last with the quality and quantity of movies to see and the extra time people have on their hands after they get through with their holiday celebrations. The marketplace expands dramatically from Christmas evening to the end of New Year's weekend, a span of ten days, being able to absorb more movies to coincide with increased moviegoing availability. So on the 52nd week of the year the movie business kicks into high gear, unlike so many other businesses, taking advantage of everyone else slowing down, schools being out, vacations being taken. Even with today's multitude of delivery platforms, one of the favorite traditions Americans enjoy during the holiday break is going out to their local movie theatre and watching movies. In addition, there is a lot more momentum going into Christmas this year. The week before Christmas last year saw a Jim Carrey comedy, "Yes Man," as the top movie at $18 million; last weekend "Avatar" opened to $77 million despite the east coast blizzard which kept attendance down in several major markets. With the box office already passing $10 billion for the first time earlier this week, distributors and exhibitors are in great position and looking forward to an explosive week at the ticket counters. This final stretch will determine how high the record will be, some are predicting as high as $10.5 billion.

When something unexpected like a blizzard hits big market cities during the opening weekend of a movie, that can spell doom for most movies and their distributors. The way the business is structured, new movies hit the marketplace each week and the marketing campaigns are positioned to accomplish one objective, to deliver the biggest three day gross possible before the next wave of releases open the following weekend. That's why we see a new number one movie almost every week. If a movie fails to maximize it's opening gross for whatever reason, that lost business may never be recaptured, lost in the crunch of new competition. The adage goes, "a film has one chance to open and you better get it right." Well, "Avatar" isn't most movies and last weekend's blizzard is a mere hiccup that was easily shrugged off by its distributor 20th Century Fox. Fox knows they have the goods and with that great holiday playtime looming ahead, every admission lost to the storm will find its way back to the theatres and then some in the next couple of weeks. "Avatar," which has been described by Steven Spielberg as the best film he'd ever seen, is far from being a one week wonder. After seeing it myself, this should be the dominant film for several weeks and where it's eventual gross will land up is anybody's guess. If "Transformers" could gross $400 million, "Avatar" could surely match that and could even approach $500 million, especially with the higher 3D ticket prices. James Cameron dreamed big and he hit it out of the park. It was an experience for me that was similar to when I first saw "2001: a Space Odyssey" as an 18 year old. I saw some things on screen that I'd never seen before and it blew me away. It looks like it could indeed be the game changer the industry was hoping for.

Just about every critic and moviegoer who has seen "Avatar" is raving about it and repeat business is already being reported. The movie almost demands a second viewing because Cameron fills the screen with so many wonders you want to go back to see if you missed anything. The big question is how it will affect all the other movies, including the five films that will be going wide for the first time on Christmas weekend. When a movie opens and grosses more than all the other movies combined, that's pretty formidable competition. Let's look at the five films opening wide across the country:

"It's Complicated" - Universal - new
"Sherlock Holmes" - Warner Brothers - new
"Alvin and the Chimpmunks" - 20th Century Fox - new
"Up in the Air" - Paramount - national expansion
"Nine" - Weinstein Films - national expansion

Each of these movies have their strengths or they wouldn't be opening or going wide on Christmas Day. Lionsgate found out the hard way last year when they chose to open the less than stellar "Spirit" on Christmas and did very poorly, not able to compete with much higher profile and star driven films by the likes of Brad Pitt, Tom Cruise, Adam Sandler and Jennifer Anniston. This 2009 crop of movies should be able to hold their own and the fact that many moviegoers plan to see several movies over the next ten days will turn many of the holiday movies into profitable successes for their studios and financing partners. Let's start with "It's Complicated." In a male dominated Hollywood, director Nancy Myers is the industry's most successful woman director and her latest has the look of nice hit for Universal because it's core audienece of women 35 and over is the one demographic least interested in seeing "Avatar." Even though women make up half the population, Hollywood almost always seems surprised when women are able to carry a film by themselves. Last Sunday's New York Time's Magazine cover story posed the question, "Can Anybody Make a Movie for Women?" The article was mostly a profile of Nancy Myers and pointed out she's one of only four or so women directors getting steady work in Hollywood. Myers knows her way around romantic comedies and with a cast of Meryl Streep, Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin she can't lose on this one. The article also pointed out how difficult it is to make a winning romantic comedy. Sony's total misfire of "Did You Hear About The Morgans?" a week earlier with Sarah Jessica Parker and Hugh Grant confirms that as the movie received some of the worst reviews of the year and flopped with a $7 million dollar opening. There always seems to be one studio every year that falls short at the end of the year and this year it's Sony, whose only other December movie was the generic "Armored," which has come and gone after its December 4th launch. Oh well, there's always next year.

Warner's "Sherlock Holmes" has matched the "Avatar" marketing campaign dollar for dollar with each probably spending $50 million to open their films in North America. The strength of the studios remains their unmatched marketing and distribution organizations. They know how to get the job done on a massive scale. With their non-stop television commercials over the last two months, they've successfully re-postioned the Sherlock Holmes brand as a witty, fast moving action franchise which should pay off for today's audiences. Robert Downey Jr., between his two "Iron Man" stints, should help bring in both men and women. With all the adult films in the marketplace, Fox's "Alvin and the Chimpmunks: The Squeakquel" may actually be in one of the better positions to compete against "Avatar" because there's little overlap with the two audiences. With Fox as the distributor of both films, no studio is in better position to reap the rewards of the holiday season. Those who question the wisdom of another chimpmunk movie only have to be reminded that the 2007 "Alvin and the Chimpmunks" grossed over $200 million dollars. Nuff said.

Of the two Golden Globe nominees going wide, "Up In The Air" and "Nine," the George Clooney starrer should be able to withstand the competition in the best fashion. For one thing, the reviews are much better for "Up In the Air" than they are for "Nine" and there's better momentum and want-to-see for the corporate comedy/drama than there is for the musical based on Fellini's "8 1/2." They both add a touch of class to the marketplace but both run the danger of running out of steam before the Oscars in early March. What both movies are looking for is a spot in the top ten over the next two weeks and establishing a good base and word of mouth which can carry them throughout January and into February. The competition across the board is fierce. In addition to "Avatar," other holdovers like "Invictus," "The Blind Side," "Princess and the Frog," "New Moon" and "Brothers" will continue to draw audiences. In the larger cities, another part of the mix are the upscale films opening in art houses with Oscar dreams themeselves; Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart," Colin Firth in "A Single Man," Emily Blunt in "The Young Victoria" and Penelope Cruz in "Broken Embraces." This is the time of the year when movies for adults outnumber the ones for kids and teens. One of the laments heard often this time of year is why can't some of these films be spread out throughout the year. We'll be saying the same thing again next year so all we can do now is enjoy what's out there right now.

Christmas Day is a day unlike any day of the year, regardless of a person's religious beliefs. There is an eerie silence when you venture out because the roads are fairly empty and most everything is closed for the day. If a business is closed for one day of the year, it's Christmas. People are home with their families. Out of this vast wasteland of empty parking lots and quiet solitude stand the movie theatres, popping the popcorn and projecting the movies as usual, open for business as they are for each of the 365 days of the year. Always open. Never closing. Dependable. Trustworthy. Often maligned, taken for granted, but there in a pinch when you need someplace to go to get out of the house, get some entertainment, mingle with people, to feel alive. Even as most studio heads and many executives from various production and distribution companies do slow down, take some much needed time off and go on vacation, there is no rest for the weary for those who work in the movie theatres. Theatre managers, operation execs, projectionists, ticket takers, ushers, concession workers. The unsung heroes of the motion picture industry in which Christmas is not a day off but just another day on the job and a busy one at that. Some would call it the bottom of the food chain in the movie industry and perhaps it is, but it's a noble profession nevertheless and essential work that has remained the primary and lead platform in the exhibition of movies for over a 100 years. So when you go see some movies over the holidays, remember the workers who are there making it possible for you to enjoy yourself at a business that never closes. A thank you would be nice.

This is the world I began my film career in back in 1973 managing the Woods Theatre in downtown Chicago. My last Christmas Day I worked was in 1974 when Universal's "Willie Dynamite" played and it was, I recall, a full day of hard work
which began at 9:00 in the morning and concluded at around 6:00 p.m. By the time I reached my parent's house, Christmas was winding down and some relatives were already leaving. That's the life of a theatre manager, though it was only the start of a career which enabled me to do many things in the film business over the next 30 or so years. I'm also in the process of winding down my most recent career as a movie industry analyst for First Business, which gave me the platform to break down the economics of movies for 72 weeks in a row and provided the opportunity to begin the movies and money website. I felt it was a good time to end my participation in the show because the last week of the year concludes the 2009 movie season in what has turned into an historic, record breaking year at the box office. Analyzing and writing about the cycles and story lines of a 52 week season provided me with an excellent opportunity to study up close all the important movies, surprises, business trends, deal making and current economics which makes the motion picture business what it is today. I'm going to be working on expanding my writings into a definitive book on the 2009 season and adding much more material to it. In the meantime, this site will remain up to revisit all the archive entries as you choose. I'll keep you posted on my progress and I thank you for your support and interest in Movies and Money throughout the year, hoping you may have learned a few things along the way.
2009 Copyright David Sikich. Video clip used with permission by First Business LLC.