The Time Is Now For Avatar

Finally. On the next to last weekend of the year, "Avatar" is set to open on about 20,000 screens around the world. In a year of big movies, this is the biggest, in scope, in budget and in expectations. If it seems like everything that has happened in 2009 has been a prelude to this weekend, well, that's not too far from the truth. If that's putting a lot of pressure on one movie, director James Cameron says "bring it on, I can handle it." The hype, of course, all begins with Cameron. It's been twelve years almost to the day that his last film, "Titantic" opened, still the all-time box-office champ at $1.8 billion worldwide and winner of 11 Oscars including Best Picture. We've been hearing about this film for years and Cameron has been biding his time waiting for technology to catch up with his ideas, while also doing his part in developing and creating new camera systems and software to pull off his grand spectacle. The time is now. The question is, can he deliver again? When you think about it, the timing of "Avatar's" release couldn't arrive at a more crucial and opportune time for the industry, in the waning days of the first decade of the new millenium and as the cleanup hitter for the dozen 3D movies that have played in 2009. "Avatar" is being called the industry's first real 3D blockbuster and everyone has been pointing to this movie all year saying it will validate the entire 3D business, for exhibitors to convert more of their screens to digital 3D and for audiences to prove that 3D is the real deal and the wave of the future. Since most of the prior 3D movies have either been animation or horror, the hope is that "Avatar" will hook more of the regular moviegoing audience and really bring it into the mainstream in a big way. In addition to being asked to be the exclamation point for the 3D movement, his movie is also being looked on to advance current film production with the technology that he helped create. In essence, "Avatar" is being asked to carry the torch for the entire industry. That's a tall order for one movie to have on its shoulders.

I read in one of the press interviews with Cameron where he referred to himself as being a modest man. I had to laugh at that one. The self-proclaimed 'King of the World' is anything but and that's what makes him who he is. He is bold, confident and knows he's good. He doesn't shy away from telling anyone who will listen that "Avatar" is groundbreaking and will change the way movies are made and how audiences experience them. When someone in Hollywood achieves great success and openly brags about it, there are those who will openly root against a film or filmmaker to fail, the old build him up, tear him down syndrome. Throw in a dash of envy, jealousy and bitterness and you have the recipe for Hollywood at its most spiteful. But that's not going on here with James Cameron and "Avatar." The man hasn't been around in twelve years. He made the most successful movie of all-time. Big movies help all companies, bring people back to the theatres, get the public excited, get eyeballs in front of trailers from competing distributors. He provided employment for 2,000 workers for three years, technicians, actors, camera operators, editors, caterers, special effects houses. Then there is the 3D factor, how can any distributor or producer not root for the movie which can be the game changer for the industry and solidify the process for years to come. 3D means higher revenues and hopefully a stronger theatrical business for years to come. Hollywood is coming together rooting for this movie to be as big as it can be, to propell the end of the year to record heights, pulling the rest of the films along with it. For once, the industry is looking at the bigger picture, DVD sales are down, digital downloads aren't picking up the slack, the theatrical business, though attendance has been up a few points this year, has been flat for a number of years. Specialty companies are being eliminated, studios are getting by with fewer workers. People are scared, worried about the future. Hollywood needs hits, the bigger the better. Hollywood needs visionary filmmakers, big ideas, giant productions that no other country can produce to fuel the global marketplace. Dream big, execute big and deliver big. They need James Cameron and "Avatar," right here, right now to do killer business everywhere.

How much did "Avatar" cost to make and how big of a risk is it for the studio? The guessing game of what the actual budget is for "Avatar" has gone to some ridiculous heights with a figure as high as $500 million being thrown around. This occurs in the press because studios seldom reveal their actual production budgets and it's up to sources in the industry to conjecture about it. 20th Century Fox's co-chairman Jim Gianopulas is on record saying "Avatar" is the most expensive movie the studio has ever made and pegs the production at around $230 million, $30 million more than what "Titantic" cost. But no one believes that figure. The best estimate is that the movie cost somewhere between $250 and $300 million and that Fox is spending $150 million to market the movie around the world where it is opening in 106 territories. The $500 million figure comes from journalists who add production and marketing costs together which is misleading. It's true that each of these costs are recoupable distribution expenses but they are separate expenditures and are not the same line item. Nevertheless, Fox will have over $400 million riding on it which will need to be recouped. That's a tidy sum. It's even more of a gamble on paper because "Avatar" is not a pre-sold entertainment from best selling books like "Lord of the Rings" or "Harry Potter," nor is it based on comic books like Batman or Spiderman. Rather it's an original story sprung from the mind of James Cameron. However, Fox is confident they will turn a profit and believe Cameron has delivered again. Does it have to do "Titantic" numbers for that to happen? No, I think Fox would take $300 million in North America and $600 to $700 million from foreign territories and they would be very happy with a global gross of about a billion, with the real profits coming from ancillary markets like DVD and television. It has a long way to get there and this weekend is just the start.

What does "Avatar" have to gross the opening weekend to put any worries at ease for 20th Century Fox? Well, it doesn't have to set any opening weekend records and it probably won't. It is the week before Christmas and people are still pretty busy getting ready for the holidays. Throw in a huge snowstorm scheduled to hit the big Eastern cities over the weekend and it becomes even harder to predict. Historically, this week is somewhat slow. It's interesting to remember that "Titantic' opened to only $28 million, but showed some of the best staying power in history by being number one for 14 weeks in a row on its way to a $600 domestic gross. With 3100 3D screens playing the picture with higher ticket prices and critics raving about it, "Avatar" will easily surpass the "Titantic" opening and should open to $70 million or more. It's not so much how it opens, it's how long it plays. Fox feels the key will be word of mouth and strong critics' reviews which is a whole lot different from most blockbusters which do it with pre-sold marketing and merchandising tie-ins. Fox makes their tentpole sound more similar to the formula used by smaller art films.

Be that as it may, Fox is not cutting corners on their marketing budget. Since it's an original story, the studio realizes it has to spend big money to make big money to establish the movie as a must see with the public. In the U.S., they're probably spending $50 million on prints and advertising. They have been running longer length television commercials for a couple of months now and it certainly looks like it's the most expensive media campaign of any 2009 movie. What has the money bought them so far? Well, not the female audience. The appeal is predominatly male and young men will initially drive the box-office as it does for the majority of action adventure blockbusters. This is what separates "Avatar" and "Titantic." The core audience for "Titantic" was women and repeat business by younger women and teenage girls fueled the record gross. "Avatar" will get its gross in a different way and hope that women will eventually come around as the result of good word of mouth and strong reviews. One of the problems Fox has had to deal with in their publicity campaign is the lack of a great single still image that makes the movie look interesting and compelling. One image, one scene from the movie which can capture its essence and become the face of the film and hook the audience all at the same time. With "Titantic," the photo of Leonardo DeCaprio with his arms stretched out with Kate Winslet at his side on the front deck of the ship with a sunset in the background became the indelible image seen in publicty stories, on billboards, posters and newspaper ads. Romance, grand adventure, spectacle, freedom, the power of love, all of that captured in one photo. The challenge of all marketing campaigns is to find that one strong image that can sell the film. Sometimes it's just not there. The publicty power of the single image is missing in action with "Avatar." The main photo image that publications and the internet have been running for months are the faces of a blue skinned man and woman which comes across as unreal and computer generated. Every time my wife has seen it she has commented "I have no interest in seeing that." As we have gotten closer to the film's opening, the face of the actor Sam Worthington has been used next to the female blue alien which is a bit more of a compelling image but still not very exciting. The problem with women being cold toward "Avatar" starts with that image. Is that a crippling blow for the film? No, but I am surprised Cameron and the 20th Century Fox couldn't come up with a more compelling single image to sell the movie's concept to the world.

With strong reviews and a Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture, "Avatar" seems destined to follow "Titantic" with an Oscar nomination for Best Picture. That will also be a boost for the movie industry and the Oscar broadcast since it will be the first blockbuster since "The Lord of the Rings" to do so. It won't be the favorite, at least it isn't now, but it will be a player. Critics are calling "Avatar" tremendous and spectacular and also mention the strong story with its context of anti-war, pro-environment, anti-imperialism themes running through it. That's pretty heady stuff for a big, sci-fi film and that's what separates it from the pack from all the other blockbusters who seem to always fall short in the Oscar race. The movie has some depth to go along with the spectacle and that's what voters look for. When James Cameron accepted the Oscar for Best Picture for "Titantic,' he screamed 'Im King of the World.' Maybe he'll prove he still is and we'll see another Return of the King.
Copyright 2009 David Sikich. Video clip used with permission by First Business LLC.